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Parker Lopez
Parker Lopez

Crazy Weather Here Right now!

The weather in the region where the quake struck is expected to be dry the rest of the week, but it will be cold with below average temperatures. Highs will run near the upper 30s or lower 40s and lows will be in the 20s.

Crazy weather here right now!

Climate change is no longer a distant threat. We are living with the reality of it, right here and right now. The impacts of climate disruption in the United States and around the world are clear, costly and widespread.

While it may seem contradictory, climate change may be contributing to more extreme winter weather. As the warming atmosphere traps water vapor later and later into the year, that precipitation leads to heavier snowfall when the temperatures do drop.

Because it is so close to the Sun, any vacation on Mercury would be ruined by extreme temperatures. During the daytime, the Sun would appear three times larger and more than 10 times brighter than it does here on Earth.

The most familiar weather in the solar system is actually on Saturn's largest moon, Titan. Scientists believe that Titan experiences seasons, has clouds that rain and has an atmosphere made largely of nitrogen, just like ours.

"Just because the sea level is rising, you know, several 100 feet away. What it also means is the groundwater elevation in your neighborhood is also rising. So we'll see other elements of failure, such as base failure on roadways. And those are the elements that we are not really thinking about; we're thinking about the flooding, but there other infrastructure that can suffer; we have pipes that are underground, and you touched on the right topic in stating that stormwater management is going to help avoid that infiltration and inflow."

"We have designed systems that were based on historical data. But, as we have more people that are moved into the state, we've got more water moving into the stormwater systems, we've got more impervious surface surfaces, we've got, you know, larger built footprint," Frazer said. "And so we have to deal with global issues, right sea level rise, front and foremost, for us, it's going to continue to rise, you know, into the foreseeable future. But we also have to deal with the effects of tropical storm events, hurricanes, the storm surge associated with that, and the changes in our precipitation patterns; we're seeing more extreme rainfall events. And so all of those things together, coupled with the fact that we have a relatively old or aging stormwater system kind of throughout the state, all of those things together actually can lead to compound flooding. So flooding certainly is a huge challenge for Florida, not just here in St. Petersburg, but across the state."

"Yeah, that's a great question. And so what we'll be able to do with this data, this information, and improved models is we'll be able to identify those areas across the state most vulnerable to the flooding risk, right? And so the goal is to get down to the smallest scale possible, even to the parcel level," Frazer said. "Do we need to consider investing in that infrastructure in locations that weren't previously considered? For example? Do we need to think about potentially modifying our sea walls? Or do we rely solely on built infrastructure in that regard? Or do we rely a little bit more on green infrastructure? And so there are many potential benefits from the data that will come out of the Flood Hub."

"And it's allowed us to start a vulnerability assessment. So we're working with a consultant using funds from a grant that we received from the Department of Environmental Protection in the Resilient Florida office. And for us that will allow us to do a community-wide assessment to understand how climate hazards are going to affect our assets in this city. And our assets are anything that we really value, right? So it could be critical infrastructures like water and wastewater treatment facilities. Or it could be other really important things like public health and the economy," Gemuendt said." So we're going to be looking at sea level rise; we're going to be looking at storm surge flooding from hurricanes. We're going to be looking at extreme heat. So what we're going to be doing in this vulnerability assessment that's really unique is we'll be building a digital twin of the city. And not only will it allow us to look at the effect of certain climate hazards on our assets. But we'll also be able to add possible solutions and mitigation tactics to that simulation and see the effect that they could have. So allow us to know if we did a living shoreline here, what's the effect it could have on storm surge, if it's great, maybe that's where we want to invest, you know, attention and money in the future."

"So I think for me and residents, right? It's just It's a present, a reminder. It's not a wake-up call because we know it's possible. It's always in the back of our minds. But it reminds us that it's very much possible. And in many ways, we've been lucky. But we're still vulnerable to those same conditions happening here. So it reminds us, you know, that this could happen in Clearwater and that we need to have a hurricane plan," Gemuendt said.

Major changes are coming in 2022 across the atmosphere and the oceans, creating different weather patterns into the second half of the year, and especially in the cold season later in the year. The changes will start slowly, but the main shift will start to occur during the 2022 warm season.

We will go on a weather journey through 2022, starting with a seasonal weather pattern forecast for late winter and early parts of the Spring. From there we will go into the atmosphere and the oceans, to observe what is changing already, and what is yet to come. You will see how and why these global changes occur, and what is going to be different in 2022, compared to the last few years.

Both the actual weather and the forecast show a clear sign that La Nina is having a strong presence in the atmosphere. It will exert its influence on the late winter and early spring season in the United States and also over the entire Northern Hemisphere to some extent.

The regular cycle of the QBO can be seen in a quite simple image. Below we see the zonal (west-east) winds in the stratosphere above the equator over time. It is obvious right away that this is a very regular shift from west winds (positive values) to the easterly winds (negative values). Each phase is descending slowly over time, being replaced by a different phase over time.

There is more than one reason why QBO can influence our Winter weather. One very important aspect is of course the Polar Vortex, which is why we mentioned QBO in this article in the first place. The image below shows the connection between the east QBO and the Polar Vortex in the December-January winter period.

But, these temperature drops usually happen because of the overall reduced output of the sun on a prolonged multi-year scale. For daily weather, a single solar cycle does not have a direct influence. But as we have seen above, it is linked to the QBO, and the QBO is linked with the stratosphere and the polar vortex, so there is a linkage to the weather in some way.

Looking at the average snowfall for an El Nino winter, we can see that there is less snowfall in the northern United States during the El Nino seasons. The conditions are mostly warmer than normal and drier than normal in the north. But there is more snowfall in the west-central United States and in the parts of the eastern United States, where cooler weather can be found.

But no two years ever have exactly the same weather, and there are a lot of other factors that also play a role. We have already learned about the QBO and the Solar Cycle is a combination of other influences.

We are currently focusing mostly on the Stratospheric Polar Vortex, as it plays a very important role in the weather development throughout the season. It is known for its strong influence down from the stratosphere, in either direction, for a cold or warm winter.

But there can also be smaller warming waves in the stratosphere, that do not collapse the polar vortex. Instead, they can sometimes displace or disrupt the polar vortex enough to weaken its influence on the surface levels. That can allow other drivers to take over more strongly, creating a different weather pattern.

On the image below you can see the vertical wave propagation example. First, we have strong weather systems that deflect a lot of energy upwards into the stratosphere. Later, that energy can disrupt the polar vortex, creating a warming event and collapsing the polar vortex circulation. The collapsed polar vortex sends the energy back down, changing the surface weather patterns by altering the jet stream location.

There's a term for this remarkably rapid turnaround in weather patterns that an increasing number of scientists have begun to use, both in the mainstream media and academic publications: weather whiplash.

Francis is lead author on a paper published in September in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres on measuring weather whiplash events, which can be loosely defined as abrupt swings in weather conditions from one extreme to another.

A July heatwave immediately followed exceptionally wet, cool weather in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies in June. This turnaround was most dramatic in the Yellowstone region, where historic flooding in the first month of summer took many by surprise and claimed hundreds of homes but, somewhat miraculously, no lives. Shortly afterward, temperatures soared several degrees above average and the region dried out.

Then, in mid-June, both the weather and its impact took dramatic turns. The annual monsoon rains arrived right on time, and with an unusual intensity. Ironically, this is how New Mexico's largest ever wildfire ended up claiming human lives after the flames had stopped spreading.

The District is committed to protecting residents experiencing homelessness from hypothermia and other extreme weather injuries. Outreach is conducted throughout the year by teams from DHS and the DC Department of Behavioral Health (DBH), and the District is one of only three jurisdictions in the country with a right-to-shelter mandate.


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